Thursday 19 March 2020

Covid-19: What we know and what we don’t


 March 2020

Source: freepik.com
Since the first case was reported on January 31 of coronavirus disease (Covid-19), with a Kerala student from Wuhan testing positive, India has reported 41 positive cases of the viral disease so far.

While information about the virus and the disease so far is limited, in India the disease pattern so far suggests mild infection.

The virus and the disease


Official name was announced for the virus and the disease it causes by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The disease is called coronavirus disease (Covid-19).

The virus has been named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The Disease pattern


The global data suggests, in about 80% of the cases the disease is mild, and 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen, and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.

While the true mortality of Covid-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%.

For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%.

Not influenza


While both viruses cause respiratory illnesses, the speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses.

Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases). than Covid-19 virus.

The serial interval for Covid-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days, meaning influenza can spread faster.

Children less affected


For Covid-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa.

Who are at high-risk


Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For Covid-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.

Cure and prevention


No licensed medicine is available for Covid-19 currently; anti-HIV/AIDS medicine (Lopinavir and Ritonavir) are being given to severely ill patients under restricted use. Several clinical trials are on for drugs, and about 20 vaccines are under development.


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